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# Who Cares About the Economy; It's Earnings That Matter!
- URL: https://bilal-hafeez-notes.ghost.io/who-cares-about-the-economy-its-earnings-that-matter/
- Published: 2026-10-11T13:57:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-11T13:56:59.000Z
- Author: Bilal Hafeez

One of the biggest macro debates is whether US growth is lop-sided – just AI capex and nothing else. But whichever side one sits, everyone agrees that US earnings, especially in tech, are powering US stocks (and hence financial conditions).

The remarkable story of 2026 is that the tech valuation worries of 2025 have been answered, so far, by super-charged earnings. Crucially, investors are de-rating US stocks in 2026 because they doubt these earnings can be maintained (see my Pelosky [podcast](https://bilal-hafeez-notes.ghost.io/podcast-ex-morgan-stanley-equity-strat-jay-pelosky-on-equities-rallying-into-year-end-and-beyond/)). The lower valuations give companies some breathing room to deliver stellar earnings.

Still, with earnings season upon us, the tech narrative could change quickly if firms disappoint. Next week will see US banks kick off earnings season. We can drips of tech the following week (IBM, Tesla), but then 28-30 October is crunch time with Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Intel (Chart ).

**Bottom line: watch earnings as much as econ data**